Forecasting the Fortunes of the US Dollar Performance in 2021
Earlier this year, the US dollar gained ground versus the euro in volatile trade. At the start of 2021, the eurozone currency was trading at $1.23 versus the US dollar, a two-and-a-half-year high.
The pair declined during the first quarter of 2021, reaching a year-to-date intraday low of $1.17 on March 31, 2021. During this time, the euro sank as the US dollar strengthened as America cranked up its vaccination campaign. While the eurozone suffered under its second lockout and faced a delayed start to its vaccine program.
Euro Began to Rise
Euro began to rise again against US dollar at the start of the second quarter. Rebounding from $1.17 until hitting resistance at $1.23 on 1 June. Rising risk appetite brought down the USD throughout this period, supporting the euro. The euro fell to $1.19 again on June 19, before sliding further to $1.17 on August 19.
The euro made a tiny return versus the dollar in September. Reaching $1.19 on September 5th.However, the euro has fallen dramatically in value versus the US dollar Performance since then. The pair peaked at $1.15 on October 12 before falling to $1.12 on November 24. The euro made a brief return in early December, peaking at $1.13 on December 8th.
This slight bounce may be attributable in part to the announcement of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on 10 December. It is reported a 6.2 percent increase, the greatest inflation rise in more than 30 years.
The current value of the trading pair is $1.126.
USD Projections for 2022
USD suffered during 2020 and the first half of 2021.
However, with positive labor data and a rising economy, there are a number of things that might favorably effect a US dollar projection. However, the combination of Omicron and inflation concerns ensures that uncertainty persists. Let’s take a deeper look at some of the aspects that play a role.
Retail Sales in the United States are Expected to Increase in 2022, According to the US Dollar Projection.
According to the US Commerce Department, retail sales in the United States exceeded forecasts in October. Inflation apparently had no effect on consumer spending in the United States, as sales increased by 1.7 percent, much beyond economists’ expectations.
When comparing October to September, department store sales increased by 2.2 percent, electronics sales increased by 3.8 percent, and online retailer sales increased by 4 percent.
While these data provide strong evidence that the US economy is increasing, it is crucial to highlight that rising levels of inflation skew sales figures.
Given that October inflation grew by 0.9 percent, higher prices can account for roughly half of the increases.
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